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CONFERENCIAS Y SEMINARIOS - 2000

Cada año la Universidad del CEMA organiza dos ciclos de seminarios donde se discuten los resultados de investigaciones en curso en las áreas de teoría económica, economía aplicada y finanzas. Participan profesores y alumnos de la institución, como así también invitados especiales. El sólido prestigio académico de la institución permite contar con la presencia de visitantes de renombre internacional:

Seminarios de Análisis Económico - 2000
Lugar: Córdoba 374, piso 5 - aula C

Fecha Hora Expositor/Institución Título
24/03 10:00 Federico Weinschelbaum
UdeSA
A principal-agent building block for the study of decentralization and integration

Abstract:
The architecture of public decision making in the world is being changed through processes of "economic integration" and of "decentralization". Some policy decisions are now taken at a higher level (i.e., monetary policy in Europe, trade policy in part of South America ), while others are taken by smaller political units "closer to the people" (i.e., health and education policies in many Latin American countries). We provide a building block for the study of such processes, emphasizing the trade off between the advantages of centralized decision making (internalization of externalities) and those of decentralized decision making (increased principal-agent control by the citizens). We do so within the context of a class of principal-agent models known as common agency
29/03 10:00 Tomas Serebrisky
University of Chicago
Testing for Imperfect Competition: the Argentine Gasoline Market

Abstract:
After the deregulation of gasoline markets in Argentina in 1991, gasoline prices have not reacted to crude oil price changes as much as they have done in the United States. Not only have price responses been different, but also the level of prices in Argentina has remained higher than that in the US. In this paper, I study the extent to which a higher degree of market power in Argentina explains these differences in pricing behavior. To this end, I propose three approaches. First, I derive the long run response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes and estimate the elasticity of gasoline price with respect to crude oil price for different market structures. The comparison of long run responses and elasticities rules out the price elasticity of demand as a candidate to explain differences between Argentina and the US. Second, I estimate an average industry conduct parameter. Using the American market as a benchmark, this model shows that oil firms in Argentina set prices as if the market were highly concentrated. The third approach, models demand and supply in a discrete choice framework treating gasoline as a differentiated product. Using firm-level data for five Argentine markets, I construct a likelihood ratio test to select among alternative supply relations. The supply relation obtained under Cournot competition provides the best fit to the data. Finally, the paper explores the role of the government as a "tacit regulator" and its impact on firms' pricing policies.
31/03 10:00 Juan Carlos De Pablo
Depabloconsult
Necesidad y demanda de economistas
7/04 10:00 Horacio Piffano
Universidad Nacional de La Plata

Distortions and Fraud in the Subnational Vat

Abstract:
This paper analyzes some basic problems found in the operation of different variants of the subnational VAT, by means of a simple formal presentation of inter provincial (subnational state) transactions, through a model of a closed economy, with two regions or provinces and four sectors or activities. The work has been motivated by previous developments of the literature, essentially Varsano, R. (1999), Bird, R. and Gendron, P. (1998), McLure, C. (1999), Keen, M. y Smith, S. (1996) and Schenone, O. (1999), and from the author's previous papers (Piffano, H., 1999a and 1999b). The basic point of the paper is to focus on possible distortions and incentives to fraud that can emerge in the operation of this tax in its different variants: the "pure" origin VAT, the "modified" origin VAT, the "destination - differed payment" VAT and the most recent proposed versions, the "barquinho" (little boat) or "mochila" (backpack) VAT and the "radial" VAT. The paper concludes that none of the variants assures at the same time perfect neutrality and absence of incentives to fraud, circumstance that magnifies and justifies the lasting existence of diverse political solutions that had being evaluated in the EU and are at present being evaluated in several emergent countries, specially in India, Brazil and Argentina.

14/04 10:00 Marcelo Delajara
Universidad Siglo 21

Economic growth, fertility, and the quality of childhood

Abstract:
We extend the neoclassical model of growth with endogenous fertility to analyze the evolution of the standard of living of children. The quality of childhood in Western economies, measured by the mean height-for-age of children, increased with economic growth during the last hundred and fifty years, but it declined and stagnated during industrial revolution times. There is evidence linking this evolution of heights to the demographic transition. We solve our model numerically and the results match the stylized facts well. The same relationship between fertility, income per capita, and children's heights emerges from the analysis of recent data from a cross-section of countries.

19/04 10:00 Samuel Berlinski
Nuffield College, Oxford University.

On the estimation and test specification of wage equations using GMM.

Abstract:
The estimation of wage differentials has always been a matter of great interest for economists. The purpose of this paper is to present a framework where the conditions under which different estimators are consistent and/or can increase efficiency are clear. Moreover, we stress the fact that many of these conditions are testable so it may be reasonable to test rather than assume them as we often do when we estimate wage differentials using panel data. We present an application of GMM estimation techniques and specification tests to the estimation a wage equation using data from the British Household Panel Survey.

28/04 10:00 Pablo Andrés Neumayer
UTDT (y Fabrizio Perri/NYU)

Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of country risk

Abstract:
This paper quantitatively assesses the relation between fluctuations in the interest rate (country risk) faced by an emerging economy and the business cycle. We develop a model in which the borrowing rate affects households decisions on consumption and asset accumulation and firms demand for labor and capital. A key assumption is that firms have to pay for factors of production before receiving the proceeds of their sales. We calibrate the model to Argentina for the period 1983-1998 and find that country risk alone explains a significant fraction (55%) of output fluctuations.

5/05 10:00 Jorge Streb
Universidad del CEMA
(Trabajo conjunto con Piero Ghezzi y Ernesto Stein)

Nominal and real exchange rate cycles around elections

Abstract:
We develop the implications of political budget cycles for real exchange rates in a two-sector small open economy with a cash-in-advance constraint. Policy makers are office motivated politicians. Voters have incomplete information on the competence and the opportunism of incumbents. Devaluation acts like a tax, and is politically costly because it can signal the government is incompetent. This provides incumbents an incentive to postpone a devaluation, and can lead to an overvalued exchange rate before elections. We compare the implied cycle of appreciated/depreciated exchange rates to empirical evidence around elections from Latin America and the Caribbean

12/05 10:00 Alejandro Rodríguez
Univ. del CEMA

Supermercados en Capital Federal y Gran Buenos Aires: Un Modelo de Competencia espacial con Entrega a Domicilio.

Abstract:
En un modelo de competencia espacial del tipo "ciudad lineal" se introduce la opción de ofrecer un servicio de entrega a domicilio. Se analizan los posibles equilibrios y los efectos de la distancia entre los oferentes a la hora de ofrecer el servicio. Los resultados son luego testeados con datos para 157 supermercados de 7 grandes cadenas en Capital Federal y Gran Buenos Aires, Argentina.

19/05 10:00 Marcelo Catena y George McCandless
BCRA
Unique bank-run equilibria in the Diamond-Dybvig model
9/06 10:00 Andrés Vinelli
Harvard University

Microfinanzas: Desarrollo de organizaciones que proveen creditos para microempresas.

Abstract:
La provision de servicios financieros para microempresas es un tema que ha generado gran interes en todo el mundo en los ultimos años. El desarrollo de bancos y organizaciones sin fines de lucro dedicadas a las "microfinanzas" en lugares tan dispares como Bangladesh y Bolivia ha inspirado imitadores en casi todos los paises, incluyendo la Argentina. La charla se centrara en la discusion de varios casos de organizaciones dedicadas a la provision de creditos para emprendedores de bajos recursos economicos. Se discutiran aspectos teoricos y empiricos acerca de la performance social y economica de estas organizaciones, y acerca de la posibilidad de que existan conflictos entre estos dos aspectos de desempeño.

16/06 10:00 Fabio Bertranou
Universidad Siglo XXI

Moral hazard and prices in Argentina´s Health Markets

Abstract:
Este artículo estudia dos temas relacionados con la provisión de seguros de salud para trabajadores asalariados y su utilización de servicios de salud: (1) el problema de moral hazard, y (2) el rol de los precios en la utilización. Se examina la relación entre seguros y utilización a través de la estimación de cómo diferentes tipos de seguro afectan la utilización, y parametrizando características de siete grandes Obras Sociales usando el gasto de bolsillo de los afiliados. Los resultados de los modelos de utilización de dos partes muestran que los seguros sociales y privados son importantes en explicar la decisión de contacto con los servicios médicos y hospitalarios pero no en la frecuencia de uso. También se encuentra evidencia que puede interpretarse como oferta inducida por la demanda para las visitan con el médico.

30/06 10:00 Germán Coloma
Univ. del CEMA

Breve análisis económico de la propiedad horizontal

Abstract:
La propiedad horizontal es una institución jurídica común en muchos países con derecho civil codificado, que reparte los derechos de propiedad sobre edificios de departamentos u oficinas entre distintos propietarios. Aplicando una versión del teorema de Coase, en este trabajo se analiza a la propiedad horizontal como una solución para establecer derechos sobre activos que producen de manera conjunta servicios susceptibles de ser consumidos en forma individual y conjunta (bienes privados y públicos). Bajo ciertas condiciones, esta institución parece servir para economizar costos de transacción de y de administración, en especial en casos en lo que los costos de administración de un condominio centralizado son relativamente altos y el número de agentes económicos involucrados (es decir, el número de departamentos en el edificio) es también elevado.

7/07 10:00 Martín Grandes,
(Ministerio de Economía)
Conjuntamente con Julio Nogués

COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?

Abstract:
The opening of the capital account was one of the important structural reforms implemented by Argentina. This liberalization increased the linkage of the real economy with the changing conditions of the international financial markets. In particular, recent data show a clear relation between interest rates and the business cycle on the one hand, and sovereign spreads on the other. In order to understand better these linkages, it is necessary to analyze the determinants of these spreads also known as country risk. Using monthly data for the period 1994 to 1998, we find that this spread is explained by: 1) growth expectations, 2) fiscal deficits, 3) the debt service to export ratio and its growth rate, 4) contagion effects, 5) external shocks including movements of international interest rates, and 6) political noise. Based on these findings, we offer a discussion of some of the policies that should be implemented in order for the spreads to start declining and for the country to eventually reach an "investment grade" rating for its sovereign bonds.

14/07 10:00 Ken Burdett
University of Essex
Transplants and implants: The economics of self-improvement

Abstract:
Self-improvement - we all do in and many take great pride in it. Further, at certain times in our lives the major goal of self-improvement is to attract a long-term partner. For most of us this means finding a husband or wife. At such times we shower more frequently, perhaps work-out a little, the time spent in front of the mirror increases, we buy new (somewhat foolish) clothes, spend more on cosmetic products, some even contemplate transplants or implants. The list of things we can do is practically endless. All to become a more attractive and exciting person- a person with pizazz. Of course, there are several reasons why anyone might choose to self-improve. For example, self-improvement may make an individual a better sales person, or obtain more dinner invitations. Further self-improvement for narcissistic reasons is not that uncommon. But here we focus on self-improvement as an investment in attracting potential partners, where it increases the utility of your future (yet unknown) partner. This increase your utility indirectly as someone who would have rejected you may, after self-improvement, find you desirable
28/07 10:00 Federico Guerrero
University of Maryland
"An Empirical Study of the Effects of High Inflation on Firms' Financial Decisions"

Abstract:
Este artículo estudia los efectos que la estabilización permanente de la inflación tuvo sobre la madurez de la deuda corporativa en las empresas argentinas que cotizan en bolsa (para las cuales los datos están disponibles). En línea con investigaciones de sección cruzada (Demirguc-Kunt y Maksimovic, Journal of Financial Economics, 1999, por ejemplo) y con abundante evidencia casual (Heymann y Leijonhufvud, 1995, para el caso de Argentina, especialmente, y Rojas y Rodríguez, 1998, para el caso de Venezuela, por ejemplo) se encuentra que la estabilización permanente de la inflación tuvo un efecto estadísticamente significativo sobre el alargamiento de plazos que experimentó la deuda de las empresas, luego de controlar por un vector de determinantes microeconómicos de la deuda empresaria de largo plazo y por un vector de indicadores de otros desarrollos a nivel macroeconómico que tuvieron lugar más o menos simultáneamente con la estabilización permanente de la inflación.
4/08 10:00 Hildegart Ahumada
UTDT/UNLP
María Lorena Garegnani

Hodrick-Prescott Filter in practice

Abstract:
Hodrick- Prescott filter has been the favourite empirical technique among researchers studying "cycles". Software facilities and the optimality criterion, from which the filter can be derived, can explain its wide use. However, different shortcomings and drawbacks have been pointed out in the literature, as alteration of variability and persistence and detecting spurious cycles and correlations. This paper discusses these criticisms from an empirical point of view trying to clarify what the filter can and cannot do. In particular, a less mechanical use for descriptive analysis is proposed: testing how the estimated cyclical component behaves and using autocorrelation adjusted standard errors to evaluate cross correlations to differentiate the "genuine" from "spurious" case. Simulation results to test these bivariate correlations when there is a "genuine" relationship are presented. Some examples of descriptive analysis for macro aggregates (real activity, trade flows and money) of Argentina and USA are reported to show that not always the filter is appropriate. Simple tools are used to appreciate how the filtered series result and to evaluate cross correlations.

11/08 10:00 Alvaro Forteza
Depto. de Economía, FCS
"Labor market rigidity and the succes of reforms accros more than one hundred countries"

Abstract:
This paper shows that labor market policies and institutions have an impact on the effectiveness of economic reform programs. The analysis compares annual growth rates across 119 countries, using data from 449 adjustment credits and loans given by the World Bank between 1980 and 1996. The results indicate that countries with relatively "rigid" labor markets experienced deeper recessions before adjustment and slower recoveries afterwards. The paper also disentagles the mechanisms through which labor market "rigidity" operates. It finds that minimum wages and mandatory benefits have a marginal impact only. The size and strength of organized labor, on the other hand, appear to be crucial. Labor market rigidity thus seem to be relevant for political reasons, more than for economic reasons. The paper shows that these findings are robust to changes in the sample and specification. Overall, the results suggest that insufficient attention has been paid to the compensation of vocal groups who stand to lose from economic reforms.
18/08 10:00 Adrián Guissarri "Seguridad Jurídica y Crecimiento con Restricciones Institucionales"

Abstract:
Aún cuando existe un amplio consenso en cuanto a la importancia que los problemas institucionales tienen para explicar las decisiones de la política económica y las divergencias en el desempeño del crecimiento entre países, no existe una analítica, aunque rudimentaria o general, que diseccione los mecanismos de transmisión de las estructuras institucionales y modele sus efectos en el PIB. Esta desventaja metodológica significó que las aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar el impacto de los problemas institucionales, en general, y de la seguridad jurídica, en particular, debieran apelar a modelos estadísticos reducidos entre crecimiento económico y una cierta morfología de indicadores de los determinantes económicos, institucionales y políticos. El propósito de este trabajo es evaluar cuantitativamente cuán importante es el problema institucional en el caso de la Argentina. En particular, se intenta medir con cierto grado de razonabilidad cual es el impacto que la seguridad tiene en la formación del PIB de Argentina, como variable que representa el nivel de bienestar del sistema económico.
25/08 10:00 Ricardo F. Crespo
IAE

Presentación del libro "Liberalismo económico y libertad"

Abstract:
¿Quién habría pensado que el talón de Aquiles del liberalismo en materia económica es un concepto pobre de libertad? Esa es la hipótesis que el autor de este libro trata de demostrar en la Primera Parte del mismo. Para llegar a esta conclusión recorre las críticas que los economistas de las distintas escuelas han hecho a los neoclásicos y a los austríacos. En efecto, la economía neoclásica trató los actos económicos del hombre como fuerzas mecánicas que se equilibran automáticamente. La escuela austríaca rechazó esa simplificación. Sin embargo, si se hace un análisis más detallado, se comprueba que se ha quedado a mitad de camino bajo el influjo racionalista. El autor lo analiza en el caso de sus representantes ortodoxos más importantes: Menger, Mises y Hayek. Todos ellos siguen confiando en mecanismos que conducen a un equilibrio como tendencia mientras no se coarte la libertad del agente, entendida de un modo exterior. En la Segunda Parte del libro se hace una revisión de las teorías "heterodoxas" recientes que han reaccionado frente a dichas posturas reduccionistas. El autor encuentra aportaciones interesantes humanas en varios de sus representantes que intentan rescatar un concepto más profundo de libertad. Sin embargo, aunque analiza estos últimos casos más detalladamente, no deja de ofrecernos un panorama general de las corrientes heterodoxas actuales, brindando así por primera vez este servicio en lengua castellana

1/09 10:00 Juan Carlos Rodríguez
University of Maryland

Excess volatility in an equilibrium model with incomplete information

Abstract:
Recent research in Asset Pricing theory has pointed out the potential of incomplete information and learning to explain the excess volatility puzzle. This research is partial equilibrium in nature, as it assumes that, although some parameters of the dividend process are unknown, and have to be estimated using all available information, the discount rate is observable and constant. In this paper I study the effect on excess volatility of incomplete information about the endowment's rate of growth, in a continuous-time version of the Lucas (1978) model. It is shown that, when the assumption of observability of the discount rate is relaxed, incomplete information can reduce both volatility and the risk premium.

8/09 10:00 Ernesto Schargrodsky
UTDT
The Role of Wages and Auditing during a Crackdown on Corruption in the City of Buenos Aires
15/09 10:00 Eduardo Levy Yeyati
UTDT

Financial Dollarization

Abstract:
This paper presents a portfolio model of financial intermediation in which currency choice is determined by hedging decisions on both sides of a bank's balance sheet. Minimum variance portfolio (MVP) allocations are found to provide a natural benchmark to estimate the scope for dollarization of bank deposits and loans as a function of macroeconomic uncertainty. Dollarization hysteresis is shown to occur when the expected volatility of the inflation rate is remains in relation to that of the real exchange rate. The evidence shows that MVP dollarization generally approximates actual dollarization closely for a broad sample of countries. Policy implications are explored.

22/09 10:00 Osvaldo Meloni,
UNT
( y Ana María Cerro, UNT)

Crime, income distribution and unemployment.

Abstract:
The literature on the economics of crime typically estimates the supply of offenses, where crime per 10,000 inhabitants is related to the probability of arrest, the probability of conviction, the severity of punishment, the expected income from the criminal activity, the returns from alternative legal activities, and other socio-economic factors. Unlike studies with U.S. and British data, recent empirical applications for Argentina, covering the 80's and early 90's, do not report strong evidence supporting the effect of socio-economic variables on crime. Interestingly, during the 90's Argentina experienced a huge increase in the unemployment rate -particularly since 1994- and a worsening in income distribution. Many academics, politicians and opinion molders have related the worsening in unemployment and income distribution figures to the hike in crime rate, however, only weak evidence has been provided to support that view.
Is Argentina so different from the rest of the world? To answer this question the present paper, based on Becker's theoretical model, estimates a supply for offenses with panel data that spans over the decade 1990-99 and all 24 Argentinean provinces.
Like previous empirical applications for Argentina, a significant deterrence effect was found, unlike them we also identify a strong socio-economic effect on the crime rate. The unemployment rate and the income inequality indicator were found positive and significant, indicating that a worsening in socio-economic conditions have a positive impact on crime. Likewise, the level of the GDP per capita was also found positive and statistically significant implying that richer areas attracts criminals because of opportunities available to them.

6/10 10:00 Enrique Lucio Kawamura
UdeSA

International and Local Lenders of Last Resort in a small open economy with aggregate risk

Abstract:
In a two - currency, fixed exchange rates version of the Bryant - Diamond and Dybvig, small open economy model with aggregate liquidity shocks I study the role of an international and local lenders of last resort in both implementing the first best allocation and preventing self fulfilling bank runs. The first best allocation implies that perfect insurance against aggregate liquidity risk, contrary to the partial suspension of convertibility result in Wallace (1988). It is shown that an international liquidity-providing institution may implement the first best without runs in contrast with the well-known result by Chang and Velasco (1998, 2000), when a local lender of last resort is needed. It is also shown that the unrestricted ILLR in general prevent runs, independent of whether it implements the first best or not. An interim-date borrowing constrained social optimum is also characterized. A second best problem arises when borrowing constraints are introduced. Here Wallace´s (1990) partial suspension of convertibility is obtained. The first best result on implementation as well as the prevention of runs remains true also in the second best case

18/10 10:00  Agustín Duarte
Universidad de Alicante
The business cycle in the G-7 economies.

Abstract:
In this paper the Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to decompose real GDP for the G-7 countries into cyclical and trend components. The resulting series of cyclical components are then examined for static relationships, using correlations and graphs; long-run relationships using autoregressive-distributed lags models, and short-run relationships, using eror correction models. The main result is that the patterns of cyclical behaviour changed following the oil price shocks in the 1970s. Since 1980, cyclical fluctuations have been smaller as a result of a decline in synchronisation of the cycles in the G7. Two separate cycles seem to be developing since 1990. One is for Germany, Italy and France, whilst the other is for the US, UK and Canada. Within each of these groups there are both long-run and short-run relationships between the cyclical components of GDP.
27/10 10:00 Alejandro Saporiti
Universidad Nacional del Sur

Decisiones colectiva, instituciones y sesgo institucional: el modelo del fijador de agenda

Abstract:
Este trabajo examina algunos de los resultados más importantes de la teoría de las decisiones colectivas y del enfoque positivo de la política. En primer término, la atención se concentra en los mecanismos directos de agregación de preferencias, destacando consecuentemente la inestabilidad global que los caracteriza. En la segunda parte, se analiza la agregación indirecta y, por lo tanto, la importancia de las instituciones como fuentes de equilibrio y de estabilidad. Finalmente, la última parte del trabajo emplea el conocido modelo del fijador de agenda para ilustrar la capacidad de la estructura institucional para sesgar los resultados colectivos en favor de quiénes la controlan

3/11 10:00 Jorge Avila
U. del CEMA
Propuesta de Federalismo Fiscal

Abstract:

Se trata de una propuesta de completa descentralización tributaria con el objeto de restablecer el principio de correspondencia fiscal en las provincias. Específicamente, la propuesta consiste en eliminar las remesas nacionales que financian en la actualidad más del 60% del gasto público provincial (coparticipación federal y otros fondos comunes paralelos), y en erigir en su lugar un nuevo sistema tributario provincial y, como reflejo, un nuevo sistema nacional, ambos fundados en la imposición al consumo. La propuesta contempla como parte orgánica, la adopción de un nuevo esquema de transferencias interprovinciales y la creación de un nuevo organismo para dotar de seguridad jurídica a la descentralización tributaria.
10/11 10:00 Alberto Porto
UNLP
On the admission process to higher education in Argentina
17/11 10:00 Federico Sturzenegger
UTDT

Exchange rate regimes and economic performance

Abstract:

  1. Fixed exchange rate regimes seem to have no significant impact on the inflation level when compared with pure floats, while intermediate regimes are the clear underperformers. Moreover, among the countries that we classify as having an intermediate regime, those that claim to be fixes appear to be no different from the rest. In short, words do not seem to provide additional benefits in terms of lower inflation.
  2. Pegs are significantly and negatively related with per capita output growth in non-industrial countries. On the other hand, de jure pegs that devalue exhibit faster growth than its counterparts that defend the regime. Thus, in this case, deed seem to matter: those countries that fixed and actually defended their regime were negatively rewarded, growing less than those which eventually allowed their exchange rates to float.
  3. Output volatility declines monotonically with the degree of regimes than under floats.
  4. Real rates appear to be lower under fixed exchange rate regimes than under floats. Indeed, de facto intermediate regimes that claim to be running a peg benefit from lower rates, that is, in this case words (rather than deeds) matter.
24/11 10:00 Marcos Gallacher
U. del CEMA
Capital Humano y Eficiencia de Producción: La Empresa Agropecuaria Pampeana

Abstract:
La mayor parte de los estudios sobre retornos al capital humano centran atención en salarios (en particular, salarios de trabajadores urbanos). Los impactos de la educación sobre la eficiencia productiva de empresas, en cambio, ha recibido menos atención.

Este trabajo emplea datos a nivel empresa para cuantificar las diferencias en eficiencia técnica y de asignación debidas a capital humano del empresario. Asimismo, se cuantifica el impacto que tiene, sobre los resultados económicos, el empleo de asesores privados y de técnicos pertenecientes a organismos públicos.

Se analiza el caso de la agricultura pampeana, un sector caracterizado por importante dinamismo.

1/12 10:00 Pablo Sanguinetti
UTDT
Wage inequality and trade liberalization: evidence from Argentina

Trabajo Conjunto con Sebastián Galiani
5/12 13:00
a
14:00
Eduardo Morón
Universidad del Pacífico
The Twin Risk in the Dollarization Debate: Country and Devaluation Risks
15/12 10:00 Gabriel Rubinstein
Consultor
Debt to Export: a misleading indicator regarding the probability of default of foreign debt

Abstract:
El trabajo discute la validez de utilizar la relación entre Deuda y Exportaciones como un indicador del riesgo crediticio de una economía. En un principio, se desarrollan las principales variables que son tenidas en cuenta por agencias calificadoras de riesgo y otros analistas económicos a efectos de evaluar el riesgo soberano. A fin de demostrar el uso equivocado del indicador Deuda/Exportaciones, el autor utiliza un simple modelo macroeconómico que permite comparar el comportamiento de diferentes economías al ser expuestas a shocks externos, haciendo evidente los errores o redundancias a que lleva el uso del indicador Deuda/Exportaciones, refutando en particular, la afirmación corriente que le asigna importancia al nivel de exportaciones como fuente generadora de divisas para el pago de deuda externa.
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